Climate change and armed conflicts in Africa: temporal persistence, non-linear climate impact and geographical spillovers

Abstract The paper focuses on the nexus between climate change and armed conflicts with an empirical analysis based a panel of 2653 georeferenced cells for African continent 1990 2016. Our econometric approach addresses unobservable heterogeneity in predicting probability violent events persistency conflicting behaviour over time. proposed strategy also accounts both changes climatic conditions spatial dynamics. two main findings carry policy-relevant implications. First, influence large ranges, thus suggesting that design adaptation policies to reduce vulnerability should account multiple interrelations. Second, violence calls planning strategies resilience jointly designed measures support peacekeeping.